Adeleke Faces Tough Challenge in Osun 2026 Election

Political moves, changing alliances and increasing security worries have turned the Osun State governorship election into a closely watched race. Ismaeel Uthman looks at the challenges and chances for Governor Ademola Adeleke as he aims for a second term.

With just three weeks left to the Osun State governorship election, worries are rising that the election could be affected by violence and fraud. Once a peaceful state, Osun has seen political killings and violent attacks rise.

On August 15, a total of 2,339,233 registered voters (if they all pick up their PVCs) will head to 3,763 polling units and 332 wards across 30 local governments and one area office to choose a governor.

There are 14 political parties in the election. But only Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress and Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress are actively campaigning and building political structures.

Adeleke and Oyebamiji have been the most visible in the political scene, using their power to dominate. Many residents blame both parties for the ongoing political killings, claiming they have used cultists, especially from the Aiye and Eiye groups, to attack opponents. Some candidates from these parties are also said to be cult members, making recruitment easier.

As the election day approaches, experts have pointed out several factors that will influence the election outcome, especially for Adeleke.

Adeleke's Challenge

In 2022, Adeleke beat then Governor Adegboyega Oyetola of the APC by 28,344 votes, garnering 403,371 votes. He took advantage of division within the APC and the sympathy from his earlier 2018 election bid to unseat the incumbent.

Adeleke's success in 2022 was also supported by security forces and a neutral stance from the Presidency, which was then led by the late President Muhammadu Buhari.

Now, three years later, known as Imole, Adeleke still has the backing of thousands of voters, even those outside his party, Accord. Many civil servants and pensioners seem eager to see him re-elected, along with support from all 25 members of the state House of Assembly.

Adeleke has also gained followers from former deputy governor Iyiola Omisore. Omisore, who is not supporting the APC campaign, has seen loyalists, including former commissioners, switch to the Accord Party due to the exclusion of a former APC National Secretary from the party’s primaries.

Additionally, a former Secretary to the State Government, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, known for grassroots mobilization, has joined Adeleke along with many of his supporters.

This boosts Adeleke’s re-election chances in Iwo, supported by infrastructure projects that have appealed to many residents of the city.

Support from Ede

Adeleke's hometown and his people are passionate about his second-term run. He has improved the town of Ede with various projects and many appointments have favored his kinsmen.

In 2022, Adeleke received 43,368 votes in Ede North and Ede South, while Oyetola got 14,607 votes. He also won in Egbedore, a nearby local government, by 4,002 votes.

Many influential groups in Osogbo, a key area for election outcomes in the state, backed Adeleke, giving him 51,751 votes compared to Oyetola's 41,661 votes. For years, the progressives had dominated Osogbo until 2022.

A Tougher Political Climate

Now, Adeleke faces a different and tougher political environment. While some praise his performance, especially in infrastructure, others call him a poor manager. His governance will be tested on election day.

Additionally, Adeleke faces challenges from the APC, which has been sabotaging his administration and threatening his re-election in various ways. Analysts think the judiciary and security forces are not in his favor, based on recent events in the state.

The APC has taken control of local governments from Adeleke. The party’s chairmen elected in the 2022 local government elections have been running the councils and their funds since 2025.

Some powerful groups that helped Adeleke win in 2022 have now shifted allegiance to his rivals. The Omoluabi Progressives, which supported Adeleke in 2022, are now backing Salaam to be the next governor.

Concerns in Osogbo and Ijesaland

Some APC leaders told Sunday PUNCH they are worried about a possible alliance between the ADC and the Accord Party right before the election. Analysts say any votes the ADC gets will reduce Adeleke's chances and boost Oyebamiji.

Adeleke has lost two senators and three House of Representatives members to the APC. One of them, Wole Oke, representing Obokun/Oriade Federal Constituency, is now the Director-General of the APC governorship campaign.

Analysts see Osogbo, which has two local governments, as a key area for Adeleke and Oyebamiji. The political dynamics involving traditional leaders, local groups, and other stakeholders are complex.

Some chiefs in Osogbo openly support Adeleke, but some members of the Olomooba group lean towards the APC candidate. They claim they will not back Adeleke because of a supposed plan to give part of Osogbo to Ede.

Findings reveal that the efforts of the APC's National Secretary, Ajibola Basiru, and the Executive Director of Marine and Operations, Lekan Badmus, are growing and could benefit the APC in the state capital. Musa Adegoke, a former Osogbo Local Government Chairman, expressed confidence that Oyebamiji would win.

“This will not be like 2022. APC is going to win Osogbo this time around,” he said in a chat.

Pundits familiar with the state say Adeleke lacks strong support in Atakunmosa East and Atakunmosa West local governments after losing influential local lawmaker Sanya Omirin to the APC.

Despite the PDP's unity in 2022, the APC beat Adeleke in Atakunmosa East by 457 votes. However, in Atakunmosa West, Adeleke won with 7,750 votes to Oyetola's 6,601.

Uncertainty in Ijesaland

Many believe the political climate in Ijesaland looks bleak for Adeleke. But the PDP Chairman, Sunday Bisi, dismissed these worries, insisting Adeleke will win in that area. He emphasized that the defections won't harm the governor's chances.

“I can boldly say that APC has no footing in Ijesaland. Adeleke campaigned in Esa-Oke on Wednesday, and the whole town was in support of him. That was Wole Oke’s hometown. Forget what they say, Adeleke will win Ijesaland,” Bisi stated.

Pelumi Olajengbesi, the spokesman for Adeleke’s campaign, also argued that the governor has strong support in Ijesaland due to the “massive love” from the people.

Regarding the defections, Olajengbesi said, “Sanya Omirin’s and Fadahunsi’s departures don’t matter. Omirin won his first election in 2023 because Adeleke supported him. The same goes for Fadahunsi, who lost in previous elections.”

He added, “Wole Oke used Adeleke’s goodwill to win his last two elections because people were tired of him. He is no longer popular. He only visits during elections, and the people don’t want him. You will see a huge turnout in Ijesaland for Adeleke. The governor has done well, focusing on projects in our area. After Adeleke, the next most popular person in Ijesaland is Aregbesola. So, the APC and its candidate are nowhere to be found.”

In Irewole/Isokan/Ayedaade Federal Constituency, analysts think Adeleke may get fewer votes than in 2022 since his main rival, Oyebamiji, is from Ikire in Irewole Local Government Area. In the last governorship election, the APC defeated Adeleke in Ayedaade by 1,147 votes. He also lost in Irewole, scoring 14,216 votes to Oyetola’s 18,189, and lost in Isokan by 56 votes.

Dotun Babayemi, the Director-General of the Osun West APC Governorship Campaign, declared that Adeleke will not win in this federal constituency.

“There will be a repeat of a major victory for the APC in the upcoming election, even more than what was seen in 2022. This is not just talk; the APC has grown significantly due to new members from other parties,” he said.

Adeleke is also likely to receive fewer votes in Ejigbo, where Salaam is from. In 2022, Adeleke got 12,964 votes, coming second to Oyetola, who had 14,638 votes. Many believe most votes from Ejigbo will go to Salaam, a local candidate.

The Battle for Transport Unions

Aside from defections and political calculations, the fight for control of transport unions, particularly the National Union of Road Transport Workers, could impact the election.

The control of transport unions in the state has become political with both the APC and Adeleke vying for power over the National Union of Road Transport Workers.

On July 20, the APC-elected local government chairmen announced the suspension of transport unions after gunfire erupted at motor parks during a protest by an APC member, Kazeem Oyewale, against the Osun NURTW Chairman, Nurudeen Alowonle, a strong Adeleke supporter.

Two days later, Oyewale took over the state secretariat of the NURTW, forcing Adeleke to suspend the union’s activities. However, the national NURTW leadership rejected the suspension and appointed Oyewale as chairman of a caretaker committee.

Experts explained that the struggle for control of transport unions is linked to the belief that drivers will be used to move election materials, which could affect voting.

“It is a strategic move; whoever controls the drivers may have an edge on election day. It is a concern that some are planning to rig the August 15 election. If a driver says his vehicle is faulty, it could delay voting,” an Osogbo-based analyst said, wishing to remain anonymous.

Adeleke's Camp Remains Confident

However, Funmiso Babarinde, the Senior Special Assistant to the Osun Governor on Renewable Energy, responded to Babayemi’s claims. She said Adeleke’s achievements over the past three years will convince “the majority of the electorate” to vote for him again.

Babarinde noted that Adeleke has completed infrastructure projects and social programs that have made him popular in the state. She believes that despite the “political attacks” from the APC, the governor will win the August 15 election by a large margin.

“This is not a guess; it is a fact. Adeleke will win the election, and all the challenges from the APC will be overcome,” she stated.

Olajengbesi also downplayed the APC's efforts to reclaim the state, calling them pointless.

“What is happening now is familiar to Adeleke. We were not in power in 2022. The APC had both the federal and state governments, yet Adeleke won. This time, they still have federal support, but it does not matter to the people of Osun. They are ready to vote for Adeleke. What matters is that the people must vote and their votes must count. After that, the election is done,” he added.

As the August 15 election nears, Adeleke steps into the race with the benefits of being the incumbent, visible projects and support in parts of Osun. But defections from key political figures, changing alliances, and the APC's renewed efforts have made what seemed like a simple re-election attempt a more difficult battle.