Adeleke Faces Tough Challenges Ahead of Osun 2026 Election

Political moves, changing alliances, and rising security issues have made the upcoming Osun State governorship election one of the most watched events. Ismaeel Uthman looks into the chances and challenges for Governor Ademola Adeleke as he aims for a second term.

With just three weeks to the Osun State governorship election, worries are growing that the election may see violence and misconduct. The once peaceful state has turned into a scene of political killings and violent acts.

On August 15, 2,339,233 registered voters in the state (if all of them collect their PVCs) will head to the 3,763 polling units and 332 wards across the 30 local governments and one area office to choose a governor.

While 14 political parties are in the race, only Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress, and Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress have made themselves known through campaigns and political activities.

However, Sunday PUNCH reports that Adeleke and Oyebamiji have largely controlled the political scene using their power. Many people in the state blame both parties for ongoing political violence, saying they have hired cult members, especially from the Aiye and Eiye groups, to attack their rivals. Residents also claim that some candidates from these parties have ties to cults, making it easier to recruit members.

As election day approaches, political experts have analyzed factors that will influence the election outcome, especially for Adeleke.

Adeleke's Political Journey

In 2022, Adeleke beat then-Governor Adegboyega Oyetola of the APC by 28,344 votes after securing 403,371 votes. He took advantage of the divisions within the APC and the sympathy from his earlier 2018 governorship win to defeat the incumbent.

Sunday PUNCH also found that he benefited from security backing and a neutral position from the presidency, which was then led by the late President Muhammadu Buhari.

Three years later, Adeleke, also known as Imole, still enjoys support from many voters outside his party, Accord. Many civil servants and pensioners seem eager to re-elect him, along with a strong campaign from all 25 members of the state House of Assembly.

Adeleke has also gained the backing of followers of former deputy governor Iyiola Omisore, who has stepped back from the APC campaign. Omisore’s loyalists, including former commissioners and advisers under Oyetola, have switched to the Accord Party in protest against the disqualification of the former APC National Secretary from their governorship primary.

Similarly, former Secretary to the State Government, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, known for his grassroots work, has joined Adeleke in the Accord Party with many of his followers.

This is a significant boost for Adeleke’s re-election efforts in Iwo, alongside his development projects that have won him support from many in the Odidere city.

Adeleke’s hometown and people have become passionate about his second-term bid. He has improved the old town of Ede with various projects, and many appointments have gone to his kinsmen.

In 2022, Adeleke received 43,368 votes against Oyetola’s 14,607 in Ede North and Ede South local governments. He also won Egbedore, a neighboring local government, by 4,002 votes.

Changes in Political Dynamics

Many influential groups in Osogbo, a major area for deciding election winners in the state, backed Adeleke and gave him 51,751 votes to defeat Oyetola, who got 41,661 votes. Osogbo had been traditionally won by the progressives until 2022.

But now, the governor finds himself in a more challenging political environment. While some appreciate his work, especially in development, others see him as ineffective. His performance will be tested on election day.

In addition, Adeleke faces major opposition from the APC, which continues to challenge his government and threaten his re-election in various ways. Experts believe the judiciary and security forces are not supportive of the governor, based on recent events in the state.

The APC has also taken over local governments from the governor, as the party’s chairmen elected in the 2022 local government elections have been running the councils since 2025.

Moreover, some of the key groups that helped Adeleke win in 2022 have left him to support his rivals. The Omoluabi Progressives, which became the ADC, backed Adeleke in 2022. But now, they are pushing for Salaam to be the next governor.

Some APC leaders told Sunday PUNCH that they are hoping for no last-minute alliance between the ADC and the Accord Party. Analysts say any votes secured by the ADC will hurt Adeleke and help Oyebamiji.

Adeleke has also lost two senators and three House of Representatives members to the APC. One of them, Wole Oke, who represents Obokun/Oriade Federal Constituency, is now the Director-General of the APC governorship campaign.

Key Battlegrounds

Analysts believe Osogbo, with two local governments, is now a key battleground for Adeleke and Oyebamiji due to political intrigues involving traditional leaders and other groups in the state capital.

While the Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji, and some chiefs openly support Adeleke, some members of the Olomooba (the princes and princesses’ group) have sided with the APC candidate, claiming they will not back Adeleke’s second term because of a supposed plan to give part of Osogbo land to Ede, his hometown.

Sunday PUNCH found that the campaign efforts of APC’s National Secretary, Ajibola Basiru, and the Executive Director, Marine and Operations at the Nigerian Ports Authority, Lekan Badmus, are gaining traction and could swing Osogbo towards the APC. A former Osogbo Local Government Chairman, Musa Adegoke, confidently stated that Oyebamiji would win Osogbo.

“This will not be like 2022. APC is going to win Osogbo this time,” he said in a brief chat with our correspondent.

Political experts familiar with the state told Sunday PUNCH that Adeleke lacks strong support in Atakunmosa East and Atakunmosa West local governments after the defection of Ijesa South Federal Constituency lawmaker, Sanya Omirin.

Despite the PDP’s unity in 2022, the APC defeated Adeleke in Atakunmosa East by 457 votes, while Adeleke won Atakunmosa West with 7,750 votes against Oyetola’s 6,601.

Some analysts think the current political mood in Ijesaland looks bad for Adeleke. But Sunday Bisi, the Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party, dismissed these worries, insisting that Adeleke would win in the region. Bisi stated that the defections would not hurt the governor’s chances in Ijesaland or the state.

“I can boldly say that APC has no footing in Ijesaland. Adeleke was at Esa-Oke on Wednesday to campaign, and the whole town was shut down for him. That was Wole Oke’s hometown. Forget about what they say, Adeleke will win Ijesaland,” Bisi said.

Also, the spokesperson for the Imole Campaign Council for Adeleke’s re-election, Pelumi Olajengbesi, said the governor has strong support in Ijesaland with “massive love” from the people.

On the topic of defectors, Olajengbesi, who is the Ijesa North House of Representatives candidate for the Accord Party, said,

“Sanya Omirin’s and Fadahunsi’s defections mean nothing. Omirin won his first election in 2023 because Adeleke supported him. The same goes for Fadahunsi, who had lost twice before.

“Wole Oke used Adeleke’s goodwill to win his last two elections because people in Ijesa North were tired of him. He is no longer popular. He only comes home during elections, and the people don’t want him. You will see a huge turnout in Ijesaland for Adeleke. The governor has done well with projects in our area. After Adeleke, the next most liked person in Ijesaland is Aregbesola. So, the APC and its candidate have no ground here.”

In Irewole/Isokan/Ayedaade Federal Constituency, some believe Adeleke may get fewer votes than in 2022 since his main challenger, Oyebamiji, is from Ikire in Irewole Local Government Area. In the last election, the APC beat Adeleke in Ayedaade by 1,147 votes. He also lost in Irewole, getting 14,216 votes to Oyetola’s 18,189, and lost in Isokan by 56 votes.

The Director-General of the Osun West APC Governorship Campaign, Dotun Babayemi, from Ayedaade Local Government, stated that Adeleke will not win the federal constituency.

“There will be a repeat of a strong victory for the APC in the coming election, even more than what we saw in 2022. This is not just talk. The APC has grown a lot due to new members from other parties,” he said.

Adeleke is also likely to receive fewer votes in Ejigbo, where Salaam comes from. In 2022, Adeleke got 12,964 votes, finishing second to Oyetola, who got 14,638 votes. Many believe most votes in the local government will go to Salaam.

Control of Transport Unions

Beyond defections and election strategies, another factor that could impact the election is the fight for control of transport unions, particularly the National Union of Road Transport Workers.

The control of these transport unions has also become political as both the APC and Adeleke try to take charge of the unions, especially the National Union of Road Transport Workers.

On July 20, APC-elected local government chairmen announced the suspension of transport unions in the state after gunfire erupted in motor parks during a protest led by an APC member, Kazeem Oyewale, against Osun NURTW Chairman, Nurudeen Alowonle, a strong Adeleke supporter.

Two days later, Oyewale took over the state NURTW secretariat, which forced Adeleke to suspend the union’s activities. However, the national leadership of the NURTW rejected this suspension and appointed Oyewale as the chairman of a caretaker committee in the state.

Analysts say the struggle for control of transport unions is linked to the belief that drivers will be used to transport election materials and that this control could affect voting.

“It is a strategic move; whoever controls the drivers may have an advantage on election day. It raises concerns that some actors are planning to rig the August 15 election. If a driver carrying election materials claims his vehicle is faulty, it will delay voting in his area. That could be a tactical rigging plan,” an Osogbo-based political analyst told Sunday PUNCH on condition of anonymity.

Adeleke's Camp Responds

However, Funmiso Babarinde, the Senior Special Assistant to the Osun State Governor on Renewable Energy, countered Babayemi’s claims, saying Adeleke’s achievements in the last three years have convinced “the majority of the electorate” to support him for a second term.

Babarinde stated that Adeleke has delivered on infrastructure and social intervention programs that have won him the people's favor. He maintained that despite the “political attacks” from the APC, the governor will win the August 15 election by a large margin.

“This is not just a prediction; it is a fact. Adeleke will win the election, and all the challenges and unprofessional actions of the APC against the governor will not succeed,” he said.

Olajengbesi also downplayed the APC’s efforts to regain the state, calling them pointless.

“What is happening now is not new for Adeleke. We were not in power in 2022. The APC controlled both the federal and state governments yet Adeleke won. This time, they still have federal power, but it won’t matter to the people of Osun. They are ready to vote for Adeleke. What matters is that the people must come out and vote, and the votes must be counted. After that, the election will be done,” he added.

As the August 15 election approaches, Adeleke enters the race with advantages of being the incumbent, visible projects, and support in parts of Osun. But defections from key figures, changing alliances, the APC’s renewed efforts, and the struggle for political control have turned what seemed like an easy re-election bid into a much tougher contest.