Threats to Elections: The Situation in Benue and Beyond

The upcoming elections are in serious danger. In Benue, a state led by a priest, state-funded thugs are targeting the opposition. If a presidential candidate from a major party cannot move freely, then the elections, if they happen, will not be genuine.

When Governor Alia stopped Obi from entering Benue last year, many thought he was joking. I said Alia was acting foolishly. I could not believe a priest would leave the altar of God for the dirty world of politics. I thought Alia would have some limits. I did not think he would be as dangerous as Wike or Okpebholo. He should have known he was still a representative of the Church. He might be a bad governor, failing to help the poor in Benue and not keeping his promises. But a priest should not support violence. A person who values sacredness would keep desperate actions away from elections.

But this is not just about Father Alia. He claims he did not influence what happened to Obi. He wants us to think he only predicted it. It can be said that Obi’s care for the victims of the killings in Benue stirs public anger against a Reverend Father-governor who is part of the ruling party and defends the president’s failure to protect Benue from ongoing violence.

This situation is about a growing culture of political intolerance. There is a plan to weaken the opposition. There is a strategy to crush the opposition, making it weak so that Tinubu can stay in power without competition. There is a clear effort to make the elections a done deal, even if they become a complete farce. The situation in Benue can harm democracy, but it may be less concerning than other political issues.

Sunday Igboho has come back and is now acting like a military chief. He has a group of armed men called Iru Ekun. They are heavily armed. Igboho claims to be the savior of the Yoruba people, but he is also a supporter of Tinubu. He has told the country that while he still wants a Yoruba nation, he will not let Tinubu's opponents succeed in the South-West. We can guess what role Igboho and his group will play in the elections. In 2023, MC Oluomo warned Igbos to stay away from the March elections in Lagos. Many innocent Igbos who tried to vote were chased away or attacked by thugs loyal to Oluomo. With Igboho free to act, elections in the South-West won’t be trustworthy.

Former Niger Delta militant Tompolo, who still carries weapons as a government contractor protecting oil pipelines, is now promoting Tinubu’s re-election across the country. Tompolo earns billions monthly from a federal security contract. So, it is in his interest that Tinubu wins again. Tompolo has not threatened anyone. Despite his past, he has not shown any signs of violence in a plan that reaches as far as Katsina.

But the increasing number of government-backed armed groups supporting Tinubu’s re-election makes it hard to believe that the coming elections will be fair. We hope Boko Haram does not get involved. Reports say the Federal Government has made a temporary peace deal with the group. The opposition needs to learn the details of this deal. Unlike the quiet Tompolo, talkative Asari Dokubo, who also has a private army, has vowed to do everything he can to get the president re-elected. With the desperation among Tinubu’s supporters, these armed groups could be given more questionable roles in the elections.

In Edo, Okpebholo threatened Obi. Obi’s mistake was coming to the state to support a nursing school. Okpebholo said Obi could only enter the state with his permission. The next time Obi was there, he was attacked by thugs. Okpebholo has promised to deliver 2.5 million votes for Tinubu. Maybe he wants opposition supporters to stay home on election day. The reckless use of threats and violence against opposition leaders harms democracy. The open intimidation of opposition supporters to keep them away now seems to be a common part of the Renewed Hope Agenda. I thought this tactic was only used by Wike and his group of bullies.

The president must ensure free and fair elections. But if he thinks anything goes in politics, his silence on the intimidation and sabotage against the opposition is not surprising. The opposition must come up with a plan to deal with this threat. If the government is not willing to hold a fair election, the opposition should not give credibility to a sham. They must boycott the elections. But both the threat and the actual plan to boycott will only lead to accountability if the opposition stands united and speaks with a common moral voice.